What this calculator shows you
- Real Historical Data
- Uses each fund's published 1, 3, 5 and 10-year returns, straight from the fund sponsor and dated.
- Compare Multiple ETFs
- See how VOO, QQQ, VTI, and others would perform side-by-side.
- Adjustable Returns
- Add or subtract from historical averages for conservative or optimistic projections.
- Year-by-Year Breakdown
- See detailed projections for each year of your investment timeline.
Why ETFs?
Exchange-Traded Funds offer instant diversification, low fees, and easy trading. A single share of a total-market fund like VTI gives you exposure to thousands of US stocks. This diversification reduces risk while capturing market returns.
Historical Returns Context
The S&P 500 returned about 10% a year from 1928 to 2023, or roughly 7% after inflation (NYU Stern historical returns data). However, returns vary significantly by decade. The 2010s saw exceptional returns; not every decade will match them.
The Power of Consistency
Monthly contributions matter more than timing. Dollar-cost averaging means you buy more shares when prices are low and fewer when high, smoothing out volatility over time.
Questions people ask
Which ETF should I choose?
For broad market exposure: VTI (total US market) or VOO (S&P 500). For growth tilt: QQQ (Nasdaq 100). For dividends: VYM or SCHD. Most investors do well with just VTI or a target-date fund.
Should I use historical returns or adjust them?
Historical returns are a reasonable baseline but not guaranteed. Many advisors suggest subtracting 1-2% for conservative planning. The calculator lets you adjust based on your outlook.
How does the calculator handle dividends?
The historical return data includes dividends (total return). The projections assume dividend reinvestment, which is how most investors should approach long-term ETF investing.
Education only, not personalized financial, tax or investment advice. Results are estimates based on the numbers you enter; real returns vary and losses happen.